Levelling out?
Is Sam Kerr's incredible 2021/22 season clouding out judgement of her performances this year?
One debate we’ve had regularly this season on Went To Mow Kingsmeadow has been the performances of Sam Kerr, on the surface, we’ve been worried over what appears to be a misfiring striker who looks almost a shadow of herself, however, the underlying numbers appear to show a striker who is right on track.
The 2021/22 season was magical for Kerr, the Australian scored 20 goals in the WSL, beating her nearest rival (Arsenal’s Viv Miedema) to the golden boot by 6 goals. However, what’s more impressive about Sam Kerr’s season, is that she scored 20 WSL goals from an xG (Expected Goals) of 11.41. While Miedema’s 14 goals came from a 14.18 xG.
That 8.59 difference became a cheat code for Chelsea as they completed a treble of WSL titles, on four occasions, Kerr scored two goals whilst producing an xG of less than 1.
0.37 xG vs Manchester United (4-2), 0.54 xG vs Reading (5-0), 0.92 xG vs Leicester City (9-0) and 0.65 xG vs Everton (4-0) for those interested.
There was also only one game in which Kerr’s xG number was higher than her actual goals scored. It that game, the 1-0 win vs Aston Villa, Kerr did score the last minute winner, and finished the match with a 1.22 xG.
Under performing by 0.22 is no disaster.
The reason for the discourse this season? Well Kerr has already in 3 games under performed her xG (1.13 vs Leicester, 1.66 vs Manchester United and 1.16 vs Aston Villa) but it’s important to note that she scored in each of these games.
Kerr’s 5 goals this season come from an xG of 5.88, so she’s on track based on the quality of chances she’s had in front of goal. If you look at the WSL’s top scorers this season, nobody stands out like Kerr for massively over performing.
Shaw 8 goals 7.18xG
Daly 8 goals 6.25 xG
Kirby 6 goals 2.99 xG
Stengel 6 goals 4.3 xG
Brynsarsdottir 5 goals 2.92 xG
The number that does stand out though is Kerr’s on target percentage, in her time at Chelsea, her current performance of 38.7% on target is by far the lowest, with 2019/20 at 53.8%, 2020/21 at 51.9%, and 2021/22 at 60.9%.
It’s not just the back of the net that Kerr isn’t hitting on a regular basis, it’s the goal as a whole and perhaps this is the main reason why supporters appear concerned about their star striker’s form?
But rather than focusing on Kerr’s form, perhaps we should be focusing on our own expectations, because as the number’s show, Kerr’s performing exactly on track as to the chances presented to her.
Let me know your thoughts below
You do need to look at Sam Kerr's complete game - she is one of the best at defending from the front. This aspect gets overlooked against most WSL teams (whom Chelsea can basically bludgeon in submission) but it does has a huge impact against elite teams.
In addition, both she and Jessie Fleming have done a number of long trips on international duty in the past year (Kerr with two trips to Australia plus the Asian Games, and Fleming to Australia, Brazil and Mexico for the CONCACAF championship) and while they are elite athletes, this has to have taken a toll on their sharpness.