FA Cup Final Preview

Chelsea face Manchester City in what is likely to break UK attendance records

May 13, 2022

Kick off: 14:30pm (UK)

Venue: Wembley Stadium, London

Chelsea vs Manchester City

This Sunday 15th May sees WSL Champions Chelsea take on Conti Cup winners Manchester City, in what will be another epic encounter between the two teams. In this article I’ll preview the game, giving the lowdown on latest form, player availability, the key battles and what the managers have said before the game.

Route to the final

Chelsea Manchester City

R4: 3-1 vs Aston Villa 8-0 vs Nottingham Forest

R5: 7-0 vs Leicester City 4-1 vs Manchester United

1/4 Final: 5-0 vs Birmingham City 4-0 vs Everton

1/2 Final: 2-0 vs Arsenal 4-1 vs West Ham United

Goals Scored: Chelsea 17 | Manchester City 20

Goals Against: Chelsea 1 | Manchester City 2

Current Form

Both teams come into this FA Cup in excellent form, both winning their last five games. City’s stats put them top of the form table, having scored 25 goals to Chelsea’s 12 and conceding just 3 compared to Chelsea’s 4.

City in fact, have not lost a game since the 1-0 defeat away to Chelsea back in early February, a run which saw them clinch the third and final UEFA Women’s Champions League spot ahead of rivals Manchester United.

Chelsea though, came through their final five games of the season to reach another FA Cup final and secured a third successive WSL title, something which had never been achieved before.

Chelsea (most recent game first) Manchester City

W 4-2 vs Manchester United (H) W 4-0 vs Reading (A)

W 1-0 vs Birmingham (A) W 6-0 vs Birmingham (H)

W 2-1 vs Tottenham Hotspur (H) W 7-2 vs Brighton (H)

W 3-1 vs Tottenham Hotspur (A) W 4-0 vs Leicester City (H)

W 2-0 vs Arsenal (A) FA Cup semi final W 4-1 vs West Ham United (A)

Goals scored: Chelsea 12 | Manchester City 25

Goals against: Chelsea 4 | Manchester City 3

Team News

Both teams have had their fair share of injuries this season, with City’s league form almost at crisis point at the start of the season with several first team players out of contention.

For Chelsea, they faced long periods without captain Magda Eriksson, midfielder Melanie Leupolz and last season’s player of the year Fran Kirby.

However both teams appear to be heading into this final in relative full strength.

Chelsea will be without Melanie Leupolz who recently announced her pregnancy, but Emma Hayes revealed in her pre-match press conference that Kirby, who hasn’t featured for Chelsea since featuring in the 7-0 win over Leicester City back in late February, was in contention to play some part in the game.

Manchester City are still without defender Steph Houghton, Karen Bardsley and Esme Morgan, but manager Gareth Taylor revealed in his pre-match press conference that Demi Stokes, Vicky Losada and Jess Park are all available for selection.

Key battles

As is often the case in big games such as this one, the result can often be decided by the key individual battles on the pitch and I expect this game to be no different. Here are the four key battles that I believe will decide the outcome of this years final.

Jess Carter vs Lauren Hemp

For both teams, success or failure depends on the performance of Lauren Hemp. The winger has had a great season for City, scoring 10 goals and providing 6 assists. So much of what works for them comes through her.

According to WyScout data, Hemp has averaged 8.63 dribbles per 90 minutes, completing 66.7% of them, puts in 8.63 crosses per 90, with an accuracy rating of 38.8%.

Chelsea will be looking to Jess Carter to repeat the job she did against her in that 1-0 win when the teams faced up at Kingsmeadow. In that game Hemp had below average stats for both dribbles (53%) and crosses (30%) against Carter.

Carter herself has completed some kind of redemption in a stand out season for the WSL Champions. The 24-year-old won 62% of the 14.52 duels she completed per 90 in the WSL this season and also averaged 9.9 recoveries.

The game could hinge on who wins this individual battle and if Carter can outperform her average of 7.71 losses of possession per 90 minutes (44.5% in her own half) then Chelsea should be in an excellent position to win this final.

Aniek Nouwen vs Bunny Shaw

Looking to benefit from Lauren Hemp’s work out on the wing will be City striker Bunny Shaw. Shaw, who signed for City this season, has slowly come into form and has scored 9 goals and provided 3 assists this season.

The Jamaican international has outperformed her xG (7.44) by 1.56, but just like with Hemp, Chelsea will be looking to keep her starved of service as they did in that 1-0 win.

In that game, Shaw played for 59 minutes before being subbed off without having even one shot on target. She only won one of her five aerial duels and lost possession 8 times.

The task of repeating that should fall to Aniek Nouwen (should Chelsea stick to a 3-5-2 formation). The Dutch international was being slowly introduced to the Chelsea team following her arrival this summer, but a long term injury to captain Magda Eriksson saw her thrown in to the deep end.

Nouwen though, proved she was up to the task, averaging 11.3 duels per 90, winning 71.3% of them, she also won 71.4% of her 42 aerial duels and averaged 5.05 interceptions per 90.

But perhaps the most telling stat is that in the 975 minutes Nouwen featured this season in the WSL, Chelsea conceded just two goals.

Sam Kerr vs Alex Greenwood

At the other end of the pitch, it’ll be City captain Alex Greenwood who’ll have to try and keep the WSL golden boot winner Sam Kerr quiet.

Kerr’s 20 goals saw her win the award for the second consecutive season, a tally which included a first half injury time goal against Manchester City in the 4-0 away win for Chelsea earlier in the season.

The Australian all time record goal scorer, who this season signed a contract extension with the Blues, has averaged 3.47 shots per 90, with 60.9% of those on target, and amazingly has an xG of just 11.41.

City will be hoping for a repeat of her stats from the 1-0 game at Kingsmeadow, with Kerr having just 2 shots (1 on target) and a recorded xG of 0.1. However as we’ve seen in the title winning game vs Manchester United, Sam Kerr cares little for xG numbers when taking on shots.

Like Kerr, Greenwood herself has had a magnificent season at the heart of City’s defence. She’s averaged 15.92 duels with a 60.4% success rate, she’s won 58.5% of the 3.54 aerial duels and averaged 10.70 recoveries per 90 minutes.

If Kerr and Chelsea are to get the better of Greenwood, then their best tactic might be aerially. Greenwood lost all four of the aerial duels she competed in when the two teams met back in February.

Erin Cuthbert vs Caroline Weir

In the heart of the midfield, it will be the battle of the Scots, with Erin Cuthbert up against Caroline Weir.

Weir scored twice as City beat Chelsea in the Conti Cup final, a game in which Cuthbert was out injured, so Emma Hayes will be looking to the 23-year-old to keep a close eye on her national side team mate.

Cuthbert has been one of the main contenders for Chelsea’s player of the season award, she’s featured in 1630 minutes in the WSL this season, averaging 40.36 passes per 90 minutes with a passing accuracy of 80.2%, but it’s in her defensive numbers in which she’s really stood out.

She’s averaged 25.62 duels per 90 minutes, winning 59.7% of them, made 9.33 recoveries per 90 and 5.25 interceptions.

During the 1-0 win for Chelsea, Cuthbert was a key part of Chelsea’s success, exceeding her average in every single category, making 9 interceptions, 12 recoveries and winning 64% of her duels.

Just like her fellow Scot, Weir has played a huge role in City’s revival this season, she’s featured in 1551 minutes, averaging 42.65 passes per 90 with a 86.9% accuracy rate. Defensively her stats are not as impressive as Cuthbert’s with Weir averaging 17.99 duels winning 41.3% of them, 3.66 interceptions and 6.44 recoveries per 90 minutes.

Although Weir has been more threatening going forward, scoring 6 goals and providing 5 assists in the WSL this season from 49 shots (44.9% on target), beating her xG of 4.74.

This is compared to Cuthbert’s 4 goals, 5 assists from 45 shots (24.4% on target) beating her xG of 2.84.

Games of this magnitude are often decided by fine margins, but it’s who wins this midfield battle that will put their team in the best position to take the trophy home.

What the managers said

Both Chelsea manager Emma Hayes and her Manchester City counterpart Gareth Taylor held their pre-match press conferences earlier today.

Hayes will be looking to add to her three previous FA Cup wins (2015, 2018, 2021) with victory over City, and add to the third consecutive WSL that they won last weekend thanks to a 4-2 victory over Manchester United.

‘It was phenomenal, it really was – to celebrate with the fans. I know we’ve had a lot of success, but there was something so special about Sunday that just reminded me of what we’ve built here, not just on the pitch, but off the pitch with the fans.

‘It was a fitting tribute to three outgoing players and a really dramatic day which was brilliant for the league, really good for the league. Nice to have another trophy in the bank.’

Hayes was also full of praise for Fran Kirby, who missed a large chunk of the season with an undiagnosed fatigue issue.

“She’s a generational talent. Maybe I’m biased because I work with her but rarely have I seen a football player that can do what she does in the way she finds space, makes decisions, plays with selfless attributes. She has eyes in the back of her head."

Speaking about her rivals for the FA Cup, Hayes was full of praise for the opposition, and in particular, Lauren Hemp.

‘We’ve had to play with pressure of having to win every game to win the title so it’s been different pressures for different teams. I’m not saying you’re any more relaxed in that position but it’s a lot harder if you lose the title.

‘I’ve seen a team grow and grow and grow under Gareth Taylor this year and a team where they’ve come together in a difficult moment and recovered in a really tough moment.

‘They’ve got outstanding talent, particularly in Lauren Hemp - what a player, I love watching her play I really do, I’m excited for England in the summer. I hope she’s amazing in the summer and terrible on Sunday.’

For Gareth Taylor, and Manchester City, a domestic cup double should provide a solid foundation for his side to mount a serious title challenge next season after what can only be described as a disastrous start to the 2021/22 season.

Taylor had come under extreme pressure following the teams poor start, but said that the way in which his side ended the season has inspired confidence in his players.

“It does [inspire confidence]

“Sometimes it can have a relevance to the game in terms of the rhythm and tempo, but it’s a one-off game and it’s about who manages it well enough on the day and who plays the game – not the occasion.

“We’ve been there before in cup finals so have Chelsea… so there’s no real edge for either team. It’s just who goes out and performs best on the day.”

The FA Cup final will be a culmination of successful seasons for both teams, and Taylor acknowledged the importance of the competition.

“The FA Cup is still a special competition for players, coaches and supporters. It's never lost its magic. It’s a great competition and one I remember playing in: being the underdog, being favourite and what that brings. It’s a really special competition.

“We’ve had a nice week build-up to it. Players are in good form, a good mood and really looking forward to Sunday.”

Predicted Line-Ups

Chelsea

Emma Hayes has a couple of interesting questions as to how she sets her team up for this game, Chelsea have recently been using a 4-4-2 set up, but she might look away from that for this one to offer more coverage to City’s dangerous attackers.

Jonna Andersson started the 1-0 win at left back of a back four, but was subbed off at half time in a disappointing performance against Manchester United last Sunday.

This could lead to her opting for a “flexible” 3-5-2, with Millie Bright, Aniek Nouwen and Eriksson as the three, with Jess Carter as right wing back and Guro Reiten as the left wing back.

When in/out of possession, Chelsea would be able to switch between a back three and a back four, with Carter dropping into right back and Eriksson serving as a left back, enabling Reiten to make more damage up front.

In midfield, Erin Cuthbert is a nailed on starter, but it’s alongside who which will be interesting to see. Sophie Ingle was also taken off at half-time against United, and her replacement Ji So-Yun, helped unlock the game for Chelsea in the second half.

After 8 seasons, this will be Ji’s last game for Chelsea

However, Ingle’s skillset is likely to be more useful for Chelsea in this game than Ji’s and we could also see Jessie Fleming added to the midfield to help disrupt City’s midfield getting on the ball and feeding their attack.

Up front, it’s more than likely Sam Kerr and Pernille Harder continue their partnership with Bethany England being used as an option off the bench.

For Manchester City, it would be a shock if they line up in anything other than their usual 4-3-3 formation for this game.

City’s attacking play is based around the pace and skill of wingers like Lauren Hemp and Jess Park feeding their lone central striker upfront.

Taylor will need to decide whether veteran striker Ellen White or Bunny Shaw will lead the line, but with Shaw starting four of the last five WSL matches, it’s likely to be her who gets the nod.

Elsewhere on the pitch, Taylor has an embarrassment of riches available to him, with their midfield boasting incredible strength with the likes of Caroline Weir, Keira Walsh, Georgia Stanway, Vicky Losada and Filippa Angeldahl all available for selection.

This predicted City XI was selected by the Official Manchester City Women’s Supporters Group.

But regardless of who the respective managers select, one thing is for certain, this game is going to a classic, and with 50,000 tickets sold so far, it’ll be a match that goes down in history for all the right reasons.

Let me know your score predictions in the comments below!

Honestly Chelsea FC W

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